Preliminary thoughts on the Gulf War Parts 3 & 4

Here just some of the background issues I am evaluating to bring you special reports
3 & 4. As we finish week 3 of the war and moving into week 4 there are immense implications this coming week that determines the future of the world order and the place of the church in this new world order.

Iran War Strategy
This last week a dangerous escalation occurred when Israel bombed the South Pars gas field of Iran. This gas field supplies gas for 80% of Iran's electric power supply. It will take years to rebuild. That means if the war ends now Iran's economy is finished for 93 million people.

Iran retaliated by starting a bombing campaign on the energy production facilities of the Gulf states. Most prominently 2 0f the 14 trains of LNG gas manufacture plants of Qatar. That is 20% of world gas supply in danger. And the biggest supplier of urea fertilizer.

There are 48 oil refineries in the Gulf states that supply the world with petrol, diesel, jet fuel and chemicals. Iran bombed a number of them.

Iran's only source of income now to finance its economic reconstruction is to be the spigot at the Strait of Hormuz saying who can ship oil and who not and making companies and nations pay a big price for safe passage. I see a number of countries already making deals with Iran.

What I am watching this week is whether America continues its fruitless bombing efforts to open the Straits or whether Trump back off and declares "Mission Accomplished".

I am watching if Iran gets its way:
- They are threatening Gulf states: Youu shut down American bases or you dont get your oil out.
- For other nations wanting passage, the demand is you loosen sanctions against Iran and you pay in Chinese Yuan and not US dollars.

The Gulf and Islamic Financial Empire
The Gulf states regardless of how this war progresses are destroyed as international financial centers. Dubai especially was makign itself the home to international millionaire expats who wanted financial anonymity with no taxes and no extradition.
Financial services, property booms, air travel hubs, international shipping hubs....all of this falls apart.

Literally trillions in capital fleeing and assets destroyed. The "safe place" to live and work and invest and conduct clandestine financial operations....gone.

What is worse for US treasuries is that each of these Gulf states have enormous costs and no income for months and so must liquidate their US forex to pay for all their income needs and coming reconstruction costs.

So I am watching international bond spreads as the world goes into economic contraction. The issue over the next week is there limited passage through Hormuz with payments to Iran which leads to world economic recession. Or does the whole Gulf region blow up with retaliatory strikes on oil energy infrastructure which means a world economic Depression worse than 1930's.

I am watching the dwindling power of Islamic Finance. As the Gulf states economies collapse so will the power of international Islam economic power to build mosques and support Imams and religious expansions all over the world. How many collapse with no money coming from the Gulf states?

Israel
Two things I am watching. How bad are the missile attacks on Israel? Hardly any news is coming out. What is known key areas like Haifa port and its refinery as destroyed. How much more of Israel is being destroyed?

The issue this coming week is how many interceptor missiles are left in Israel?
How many missiles are left in Iran. By the end of 4th week we should know that answer and the fate of Israel.

If Israel survives is it still a viable nation state? How many Israeli's flee when Ben Gurion airport is fixed and opened? How many nations all over the world decide to boycott Israel like they did Apartheid South Africa?

Will the church have to face the reality of whole new eschatology to account for a failing Israeli state?

Further issues to watch....
Nations like the EU and the far East, Japan, Korea, Australia
They are all crucially dependent on Gulf oil and refinery products. For instance Australia only has 2 oil refineries. 90% of their petrol, diesel and jet fuel comes from Gulf state refineries. Australia has 30 days of petrol and diesel left.

Much can be said the same of India, Korea, Japan and others.

The worse affected will be the poor third world states who cannot afford high diesel costs and high fertilizer costs. There is famine and economic collapse coming.

And what about the NATO war against Russia in Ukraine. All the weapons are being diverted to Gulf war and certainly no more money available from teh EU for keeping the war going for Ukraine. Does that mean Russia marches to take Odessa?

And with world famine coming how is Russia's position improved as a world wheat, oil, gas and minerals suppler? Does the EU sue o=for peace and trade?

And what about America and war supplies? Any modern arms manufacture needs the rare earths that only China can supplly. For instance for America to replace all those billion dollar advanced radar systems blown up by Iran drones the crucial ingredient is gallium nitride. Will China supply America with the rare earths it will need to rearm its depleted war stocks?

The Church
The Gulf war changes the world power structures in such ways as to make all prophecy predictions bout Armageddon, Gog, Magog and Antichrist non-operative.

What happens to the evangelical church strategies when it becomes evident that we need to plan for a post-end times world. A new time frame that requires generational long term planning?

How many "prophetic-Apostolic" ministries survive this coming new world order?

Much to evaluate here....

See my next Part 3 and 4 Series.

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